Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.977872 1.141273 1.323222 1.540815 1.793976 2.079265 2.425251
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.704922 0.918673 1.183611 1.536055 1.992748 2.564848 3.336700
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.564991 0.796480 1.106130 1.550464 2.172010 3.011317 4.232608
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.452000 0.679303 1.002813 1.496557 2.231557 3.286466 4.918726
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.410614 0.652087 1.014620 1.598090 2.514417 3.900343 6.161056
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.345057 0.575792 0.939211 1.552647 2.563403 4.165659 6.905883
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.291766 0.509403 0.867533 1.498927 2.585867 4.384305 7.595709
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.250046 0.455256 0.806906 1.452373 2.609521 4.601504 8.303394
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.227161 0.430080 0.791192 1.479397 2.760653 5.049156 9.463139
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.217451 0.427091 0.813633 1.576737 3.048677 5.770279 11.205776
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.202284 0.411429 0.810291 1.624574 3.249050 6.353052 12.761028
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.185223 0.389516 0.791879 1.640045 3.387412 6.832574 14.173170
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.166669 0.362535 0.761066 1.628802 3.475527 7.233729 15.500998
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.150572 0.338526 0.733345 1.620672 3.570074 7.661978 16.948619
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.138503 0.321443 0.717676 1.635707 3.715071 8.211426 18.726241
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.122174 0.292428 0.672307 1.578844 3.693881 8.401093 19.733429
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.119742 0.295150 0.697754 1.685929 4.057309 9.481680 22.906301
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.106930 0.271298 0.659203 1.638001 4.052839 9.727401 24.157654
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.095105 0.248175 0.619317 1.581343 4.019550 9.900898 25.256644
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.085092 0.228197 0.584423 1.532243 3.998105 10.099266 26.442277
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.080259 0.220990 0.580301 1.560745 4.176632 10.809497 29.020943
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.079417 0.224313 0.603428 1.663408 4.561187 12.084546 33.238995
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.076067 0.220300 0.606868 1.713860 4.813394 13.049511 36.756298